Maximizing a Probability Function

Extracted from the book "Exploring Mathmematics with Scientific Notebook", Published by Springer Verlag, ISBN #981-3083-88-3, by me and Professor Jonathan Lewin of Kennesaw State University, Georgia.

In this example, we suppose that we have $n$ white balls and $n$ black balls which we are going to place in two urns A and B in any way we please, as long as at least one ball is placed into each urn. After this has been done, a second person walks into the room and selects one ball at random. Our problem is to maximize the probability that this person draws a white ball.

We suppose that the distribution of the balls in the urns A and B is as described in the following table:
MATH
If MATH is the probability that a single ball drawn at random will be white then
MATH

From now on we shall assume that $n=50.$ We begin our study of the function by looking at the following table which shows the values of MATH at a few selected points MATH
MATH

To solve the problem we need to find the maximum value of the expression $P(x,y,50)$ as the point $\left( x,y\right) $ varies through the rectangle MATH from which the points $\left( 0,0\right) $ and MATH have been removed. If we sketch the graph $z=P(x,y,50)$ then we obtain the following surface:
maxprob__32.png

From the looks of this surface it seems unlikely that the maximum value of $z $ will be achieved at a critical point. The maximum appears to be at the left or right extremities of the figure. As a matter of fact, if we point at the equations
MATH
and click on Solve and Exact then we obtain
MATH
As we have already seen, the maximum value of $z$ does not occur at the point MATH

We now examine the boundary behavior of the function. There are four cases to consider

The Case $x=0$ and $1\leq y\leq 50$

We define MATH for $1\le y\le 50.$ Point at this definition of $g\left( y\right) $ and click on Define and New Definition. Since
MATH
for each $y$ we see that the maximum value of $g\left( y\right) $ is MATH

The Case $y=0$ and $1\leq x\leq 50$

We define MATH for $1\le x\le 50.$ Point at this definition of $g\left( y\right) $ and click on Define and New Definition. Since
MATH
for each $x,$ we see that the maximum value of this function is MATH

The Case $x=50$ and $0\leq y\leq 49$

We define MATH for $0\le y\le 49.$ Point at this definition of $g\left( y\right) $ and click on Define and New Definition. Since
MATH
for each $y,$ we see that the maximum value of this function is MATH

The Case $y=50$ and $0\leq x\leq 49$

We define MATH for $0\le x\le 49.$ Point at this definition of $g\left( y\right) $ and click on Define and New Definition. Since
MATH
for each $x,$ we see that the maximum value of this function is MATH

Conclusion

We conclude that the expression MATH takes a maximum value of $.74747$ at the point $\left( 1,0\right) $ and again at the point MATH This means that we can maximize the probability that a white ball will be selected by placing one white ball and no black ball in urn A and all the other balls in urn B. Alternatively we can place one white ball and just no black ball in urn B and all the other balls in urn A.

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