Comparison of World Oil Reserves

THE OIL RESERVE FALLACY:
Proven reserves are not a measure of future supply

Comparison of USGS and oil industry reserve estimates

The table below compares estimates by the oil industry and the US Department of Energy of "proven" reserve estimates (two yellow columns) with US Geological Survey estimates of identified reserves (first blue column) and USGS ultimately recoverable reserves (second blue column). Links and references are below the table.

If this table is not legible, please download this Excel document: Comparison of USGS and oil industry reserve estimates.

Points to observe in this table:

• The US Department of Energy (yellow columns) uses private oil industry statistics, and not reserve figures from another (and presumably more trustworthy) government office, the USGS (blue columns).
• Does the Middle East have two thirds of the world's oil reserves? Notice the USGS figures stating that it has (respectively) 54 and 39 percent -- NOT two thirds.
• Does Iraq have the world's second largest oil reserves? Not if you include the Kuwait Neutral Zone as part of Kuwait rather than Iraq, according to USGS.
• Does the USGS have a different view of the potential of Europe, Russia and the former USSR than the oil industry?

Black = billions of 42 gallon barrels
Red = % of world oil reserves

	DOE / OGJ (1)	DOE/ GULF(2)	USGS (3)	USGS (4)
	Proven reserves (oil industry)		Identified reserves	Recoverable reserves
Iran	89.7	93.1	69.2	128.9
Iran % world	8.8	9.5	6.3	5.7
Iraq	112.5	100.0	90.8	147.8
Iraq % world	11.1	10.2	8.2	6.5
Kuwait	96.5	94.7	85.7	112.3
Kuwait Neutral Zone	NA	NA	13.7	20.6
Total Kuwait % of world	9.5%	9.65%	9.01	5.84
Oman	5.3	5.7	7.5	12.3
Qatar	3.7	5.4	3.9	8.7
Saudi Arabia	263.5	261.4	258.6	374.2
Saudi % world	25.9	26.6	23.4	16.5
Syria	2.5	2.3	3.9	5.7
United Arab Emirates	97.8	63.8	61.1	79.7
Yemen	4.0	2.1
Other	0.0	0.5	2.70	3.7
Total Mid East	675.6	629.2	597.2	899.2
All Mid East. as % world	66.4	64.1	54.1	39.6
North America	55.1	55.6	112.1	397.9
South America	89.5	69.2	77.6	185.5
Europe & Frmr USSR	77.6	82.3	166.2	423.8
All Europe & Frmr USSR as % world	7.6	8.3	15.0	18.6
Africa	74.9	86.5	76.5	170.7
Asia	44.0	58.7	71.2	170.6
Total world estimate	1016.8	981.4	1103.2	2272.5

Omitted from Middle East: Bahrain (0.1 to 1 billion), Israel (0), Jordan (0)

Notes:

This chart prepared by Bill Kovarik, Ph.D., formerly a journalist and editor of publications such as Energy Resoruces and Technology and Latin American Energy Report. He is currently a Professor of Media Studies at Radford University.

Sources for this information are as follows:

World Crude Oil and Natural Gas Reserves, January 1, 2000 US Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration. These oil reserve estimates have recently been given with additional footnotes explaining, for example, that one half of the Kuwait Neutral Zone reserves are now assigned to Kuwait. (Why only one half is not stated). Very recently a disclaimer was added by the Energy Information Administration, which now says it "does not attempt to develop estimates for foreign countries. As a convenience to the public, EIA makes available foreign fuel reserve estimates from other sources, but it does not certify these data.." EIA sources for world oil reserve estimates are the following oil industry trade publication estimates:

(1) PennWell Publishing Co.,Oil and Gas Journal, Vol 97, No. 51, December 1999.
(2) Gulf Publishing Co., World Oil, Vol 221, No. 8, August 2000

Note that the Department of Energy does not use USGS government statistics. When asked why, DOE did not comment and USGS said it was "not a political agency."

(3 and 4) USGS World Petroleum Assessment and Analysis Nov 28 2000 Also see USGS World Energy Resources site.