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NBA Playoffs: Predictions and Analysis

Josh Mathews Staff Writer
Published 04-28-06
Graphic By: Julie Brennan
The first round matchups in the NBA playoffs are set and just underway. The favorites--Detroit, San Antonio, Phoenix and Miami--head into the postseason on the waves of amazing seasons, including a nearly unthinkable 37-4 mark posted by Detroit at home. I'll break down the first round matchups and pick who I think will make it to the second round.

Eastern Conference

Detroit Pistons (1) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (8)

Here, the Bucks are a strong young team, and Andrew Bogut has really turned out to be solid; but, as mentioned before, Detroit theoretically won't lose at home, and the Bucks might not even be good enough to take one from the mighty Pistons. Michael Redd and a mediocre supporting cast aren't nearly enough for the Bucks to pull off another Denver-over-Seattle type upset (which happened in the 1995 NBA playoffs). Bogut is no young version of Dikembe Mutombo.

Prediction: Pistons in Four.

Miami Heat (2) vs. Chicago Bulls (7)

The Heat, like the Pistons, are heavily favored over their opponents, the Baby Bulls, who weren't quite as successful this year as they were last year, only grabbing the seven seed. However, in Game One of the series, the Heat won, but only by five. You've got to wonder if the Bulls' running the floor is going to catch up to the older and slower Miami Heat. The Bulls are not going to make this easy for the Heat, but with all this playoff experience on the Miami roster, and judging by how badly Dwayne Wade will rip Kirk Hinrich, it's hard to see the Bulls pulling this series off.

Prediction: Heat in Six.

New Jersey Nets (3) vs. Indiana Pacers (6)

The Pacers won the first game in the series in a close one, but here is where the NBA playoff format is going to hurt good teams like the Nets. They were rewarded for winning the Atlantic Division with a three seed, but the Pacers, who finished lower in a tougher Central Division, are going to be very tough for the Nets. The Pacers have a lot of injuries, but over and over the past few years, they have proved to be one of the deepest and toughest teams overall. This will perhaps be the closest and most hard-fought series in the first round, but look for the Pacers to come out on top.

Prediction: Pacers in Seven.

Cleveland Cavaliers (4) vs. Washington Wizards (5)

Here, the Wizards draw a very good and very hungry LeBron James. He's hungry to bring winning basketball back to Cleveland and prove that he can be a leader despite his age in a league where experience doesn't always win out. With the team that LeBron has around him, it's hard to see any more playoff disappointment. (See the Craig Ehlo-led Cavs falling victim to Michael Jordan). The Wizards have a lot of offensive firepower, but I think the time is now for the Cavs to at least get out of the first round. Gilbert Arenas and Antawn Jamison, while being one of the most potent scoring tandems in the league, won't be enough for the likes of LeBron.

Prediction: Cavs in Six.

Western Conference

San Antonio Spurs (1) vs. Kings (8)

Fact: The Kings were terrible before they acquired Ron Artest. Fact: Ron Artest made the Kings better. Fact: The Kings needed a more flamboyant and smashmouth leader than Peja. Conclusion: Ron Artest drove the Kings to the playoffs. However, they play the Spurs, a very balanced, very deep and a very good team. The Spurs have Tim Duncan, but have very little star power, meaning, Duncan doesn't get the attention that a star deserves. Balance will be the key here, and no matter how much the Kings being in the playoffs speaks for Ron Artest as a player, it won't mean much, because the Spurs are better and will prove it.

Prediction: Spurs in Five.

Phoenix Suns (2) vs. Los Angeles Lakers (7)

Lakers fans are probably wishing right now Kobe was more of a team player. In the past, the Lakers were always the favorite, but now they stand with the Suns in front of them, glaring down on them and making a second-round appearance for Los Angeles nearly impossible. The Suns' run-and-gun offense is probably going to kill the Lakers. Kobe's scoring isn't going to be nearly enough for a team as dynamic as Phoenix. Steve Nash and Amare Stoudamire could be the scariest combo in the NBA, and the Suns have new pieces, such as Boris Diaw, that will help them. But here, I think the Suns are clearly better, and no one-man team is going to beat them.

Prediction: Suns in Five

Denver Nuggets (3) vs. Los Angeles Clippers (6)

Clippers fans, your perseverence has paid off. You haven't won a playoff game since the days of Loy Vaught and Ron Harper back in 1993. You beat the Nuggets in Game One. And guess what: it gets better. You are better than the Lakers. The balance of power is shifting in LA. Also, Clippers fans, I think you have more reason to be happy. I really think the young and powerful Clippers can pull this one off. Yeah, with K-Mart and 'Melo, the Nuggets have a nice one-two punch, but Elton Brand and up-and-comer Chris Kaman provide a solution down low, and Corey Maggette and Sam Cassell make a more-than-adequate backcourt. I think 'Melo and the Nuggets will make it interesting, but I see the Clips coming out on top.

Prediction: Clippers in Six.

Dallas Mavericks (4) vs. Memphis Grizzlies (5)

Avery Johnson could be the savior of the Dallas Mavericks. Last year, they lost to the run-and-gun Suns and could almost keep up with them. Now, D is back in the Big D, as Avery Johnson has injected defense into a Mavs team that is dangerous with it. Not to mention, the Mavericks have MVP candidate Dirk Nowitzki, along with other capable threats in Jason Terry, Josh Howard and Jerry Stackhouse. The Grizzles are still in search of their first playoff win, which I think they'll get, but that one win is it. They have a lot of good players and a lot of balance with six or seven players that can lead the team in scoring on any given night. The Mavericks had the second-best record in the West, but finished behind The Spurs and are much, much better than their seed shows. I also view the Mavericks as a team that could definitely win the West with the talent they have this year.

Prediction: Mavericks in Five.

So all the favorites will last through to the second round, but the question is this: Can each team keep up its consistency on its way to the NBA Finals? Only time will tell.


Josh hides in dumpsters.

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