Too Close to Call?
| Published 10/29/04

Graphic by: Tim Tuley

The presidential election is only ten days away, and polling data is giving both campaigns multiple talking points. These talking points will either motivate voters to reverse the data or to strengthen their leads. With some polls holding more historical accuracy than others, which one should the consumer believe?

Opinion Dynamics Corporation conducted their polls on Oct. 17-18 and reported on the 19th. According to these polls, President Bush is leading the senator 48 to 43 percent among 1,000 likely voters. This is a widening gap showing the President gaining ground in the past few weeks. The Gallup, Zogby, and Washington Post/ABC polls give President Bush the advantage. Citing a historic leaning towards democratic candidates, the Washington Post/ABC poll of October 21 currently shows the President with a six point lead over Senator Kerry.

The election will undoubtedly come down to ten swing states. Oregon, New Mexico, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio, Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Florida are considered the closest races. The President currently holds at least a five point lead among likely voters in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio, and Michigan. Senator Kerry currently holds a three point lead in Oregon, and Pennsylvania. New Mexico, New Hampshire, and Florida are too close to call.

With the numbers out of the way, we ask what it all means. Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa are considered to be historical democrat bastions. Vice President Al Gore won all three of these states in the 2000 election. On the other hand, Senator Kerry is currently expected to win New Hampshire which President Bush carried in 2000. According to polls, if the election were held today, the President would win. That said, the President needs to win most every state he carried in 2000.

The two largest electoral holders are Ohio and Florida. Although the President won Florida in 2000, he could lose it this time if he carries Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa. To really throw a wrench in the works, because of redistricting, if the President were to win every state he won in 2000, he would win because of electoral reapportionment after the 2000 census.

There are a few states that are not swing states but are of significant mention. Hawaii has historically been a sealed democrat victory. It is so heavily democrat that republicans struggle to get 20% of the vote. This week, an internal pole showed Hawaii in a statistical dead heat. Although I have no doubt that Senator Kerry will in fact win Hawaii, it is worth mentioning that this previous stronghold may be changing. Colorado on the other hand is most likely going to go to the President, or both. Colorado is currently trying to amend its constitution to allow its electoral votes to be split if a majority is not met.

Unlike most elections, neither campaign can write off any state no matter how small its number of electoral votes. Look to Ohio and Florida to be the seat of legal challenges, and look to Ohio to decide the election.  

Comments:
Exactly...that's what's so screwy. Of course, if Kerry people don't vote, Bush will DEFINITELY carry the state. Now, he'll just most likely carry the state. And I guess slim odds are better than no odds at all...well, depending on your perspective I guess. The whole system just blows.

Comments:
So, what's the point in voting if Bush is going to carry this state anyway? It seems like it's already decided.

Comments:
Go BUSH!

Comments:
No, I'd say the polls are pretty accurate if they're done correctly. No poll-takers have bothered to call anyone at Radford because everyone has agreed that Bush will win Virginia's Electoral Votes. The swing states are the only ones that matter...so like 12% of the population is going to decide who wins. The Kerry Campaign recently withdrew most of their people in VA because they could do more good somewhere else. So basically, if you're gonna vote for Kerry in VA, it won't make any difference at all. Bush WILL take the state. Doesn't that SUCK? Welcome to a voting system that ignores the popular vote.

Comments:
These polls can't be too accurate. How many people at RU have been called by someone taking a poll. I don't think that too many of us have because most of us only have cell phones and the pollers don't call cell phones. Now see how many potential voters there are at RU that aren't included in these polls. Also, I'm sure it's the same with other colleges as well.

Name: Sarah
Major: Communications
Comments:
Good article Brian! This election is very close, and I find it amusing that polls are actually trying to predict the outcome of the election, especially since so many Americans choose in the election booth! Let's just hope that the losing candidate doesn't try to sue every other person and demand recounts in every state.